The release of the state economic and revenue forecast today shows signs of stability.

The first official revenue forecast since the Legislature left Olympia shows a small net change in the current biennium’s forecast. Effectively flat, the forecast declined by $16.1 million for the 2011-13 biennium.  A decline also occurred for the 2013-15 biennium – $133 million.

The total increase in revenue for the current budget (2011-13) is an increase of $156 million. However this includes additional revenue that was already accountaed for in the budget passed this year. The forecast projects an increase from the February forecast of $197 million in the 2013-15 biennium.

Within this context, legislative fiscal leaders noted that changes related to funding basic education-this does not include changes in employee compensation-would cost the state approximatley $1 billion in 2013-15, $2.5 billion in 2105-17, and $3 billion in the 2017-19 biennium.

All in all state revenues appear to be flat at this time, though revenues have not recovered from pre-recession levels. Within Washington revenue continues to grow at a slow rate primarily due to a flat construction sector and declining state and local government employment. Looking forward there is a 40% chance of the pessimistic forecast occurring in both this and the next biennium compared to 10% for the optimistic forecast.

With that said, legislators believe that as long as this course forward holds another special session prior to the January regular session is unlikely.