A Beautiful Mind in Splendid Isolation

Sometimes I forget how much pure enjoyment one can get from the economics literature. Consider this:

“The Optimal Jury Size When Jury Deliberation Follows a Random Walk”

Public Choice, Vol. 134, No. 3-4, 2008
Robert Day School of Economics and Finance Research Paper No. 2008-3

ERIC HELLAND, Claremont McKenna College – Robert Day School of Economics and Finance, RAND
Email: ehelland@cmc.edu
YARON RAVIV, Claremont McKenna College – Robert Day School of Economics and Finance
Email: yraviv@cmc.edu

The existing literature does not agree on the optimal jury size. We demonstrate that the probability of type I and type II errors is not sensitive to the number of jurors under the following three conditions: jurors received independent signals about a defendant’s guilt during the evidence stage of the trial; the jurors truthfully reveal their signal before deliberations in the first ballot via their vote; and the jury deliberation can be modeled as a random walk. Since the opportunity cost of jury service is positive, this implies the optimal number of jurors is one.

And why do we need coauthors?

5 Responses to “A Beautiful Mind in Splendid Isolation”

  1. reason says:

    Huh?

    Is this guy serious? (Of course as always with this neo-classical non-sense the real crux lies in the choice of axioms and the use of the word OPTIMAL).

  2. BruceMcF says:

    Aha! “An analysis of the optimal number of authors of a research paper under the maximizing formalism in economics.”

    By:

    Abstract: 0.

    Body:

  3. reason says:

    Why doesn’t someone suggest that the author play this mind game
    1. You are a clearly innocent white suspect
    2. You are being tried in an all-black neighbourhood
    3. 25% of the population hate “honkys”

    Now, do you still believe the conclusions of the paper?

  4. media says:

    under alternative choice of parameters for the same model, i come up with the optimum number being 0.

  5. J Thomas says:

    Media, you agree with BruceMcF. Some papers are optimally left unwritten.

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