Preliminary Economic Forecast Suggests More of the Same

This morning the Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued a preliminary November economic forecast.

The forecast shows no change in the near term from the September forecast. The preliminary report, however, does show a slight weakening for 2012 and 2013, reflecting a weaker national economic tide.

Arun Raha, Washington’s State Economist, pointed again to public sector job cuts. He noted that the 1,000 jobs created in the private sector in September were swallowed up by the 3,500 jobs that were eliminated in the public sector.

The Council is scheduled to adopt a new quarterly economic forecast on Nov. 5. That will help drive the forecast of state tax collections the Council will adopt on Nov. 18. Assumptions provided in that forecast will be used by the governor as a basis for the operating budget proposal she’ll announce in December.

The Legislature will then convene in January to begin work on one last re-write of the budget for the current two-year budget cycle and then draw up a budget for the next cycle that begins July 1.