According to 2004 data analyzed recently in a Wall Street Journal blog, enrollment in four-year colleges by low- to moderate-income students decreased drastically in the years since 1994. The average cost of attendance remained the same proportion of annual income, representing about 48% of low-income families’ annual income, while moderate-income families’ burden was reduced from 26% to 22% during the same time period.

In addition, persistence in four-year institutions decreased to 75% for those beginning in 2003, down from 78% in 1995. The implications are made more serious by the economic climate in which college students find themselves at the completion of their studies – whether they graduate or not. With national unemployment rates highest among young people – even those with bachelor’s degrees – and more and more debt being taken on by students and families in order to cover rising educational costs, the attainment of higher education may be undermined by the financial crisis.

A new report by the Pew Research Center demonstrates the effects of the Recession and a boom in minority high school graduation rates on freshman enrollment. The report is an analysis of recent statistics published by the U.S. Department of Education and suggests that the significant growth in minority freshmen, particularly among Hispanic students, could be a result of demographic changes. The report cites a changing youth population in the country, which is more diverse than the current population of adults, as a possible cause for the increase. In addition, Hispanic high school graduation rates reached an all-time high in 2008 of 70%, an increase of 2.5% from 2007.

 While the overall increase in enrollments appears to be sector-wide, the spike in minority enrollments is concentrated in two-year and less-than-two year institutions, where minority students enroll at higher rates than their white peers. At four-year institutions, minority students enroll at less selective schools compared with whites.

 The increase in minority enrollment corresponds with a decrease in white enrollments; in 2007, whites constituted 55% of freshmen at less-than-four-year institutions. By 2008, whites were only 53%. At four-year institutions, whites represented 64% of freshmen in 2007 and 62% by 2008. The increase in minority enrollments, however, was concentrated in certain states and a small number of colleges and universities. Of the 144,000 total increase in freshmen enrollment, around 72,000 were at 109 colleges and universities. As a result, less than 2% of the nation’s colleges and universities absorbed half of the enrollment boom.