September Revenue Forecast Up

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This morning the Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met to hear the latest revenue projections for the state.

According to State Economist Steve Lerch the combined effect of a recovering economy and tax changes approved by the Legislature this past session are expected to generate $368 million in additional revenue for the biennium. Approximately $123 million is due to actions taken by the Legislature with regard to tax breaks and tax reforms.

In addition the forecast predicts an additional $342 million in new revenue for 2015-17, the majority of which ($249 million) is due to legislative and other non-economic factors.

Lerch stated “There has been little dramatic change in the economy since our last forecast and we continue to expect a slowly improving economy…While we still anticipate an expanding housing market, higher mortgage rates and home prices will slow activity relative to our June forecast.”

Joint Higher Education Committee Meets

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Yesterday the Washington State Joint Higher Education Committee met for the first time since its creation in Olympia.

The Committee members – including four members from each Chamber – opened the meeting by reviewing the Committee’s legislative charge and electing Co-Chairs.  Following the completion of committee business the members were presented with an overview of the Washington Student Achievement Council’s (WASAC) Ten-Year Road Map process and draft.

The Council and the Committee engaged in an interactive conversation about the Road Map and  higher education policy issues on the horizon as the supplemental session nears. In addition, the Council heard from students about their plans for the 2014 session.

Established in 2012  the purpose of the Committee is to annually review the work of WASAC; engage with the Council and higher education stakeholders to create greater communication, coordination and alignment; and provide recommendations for higher education policy.

The Committee is expected to meet again in late November.

Governor Inslee Launches New Statewide Performance Framework

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Yesterday Governor Inslee announced a new statewide,  state-agency centered performance initiative that identifies key goals of his administration and measures the progress towards these goals.

According to the Governor’s Office, Results Washington aims to make state government more effective, efficient, accountable and transparent. Governor Inslee’s goals for Results Washington reflect what the Inslee Administration believes matters most to Washingtonians.  As stated by the Administration, by routinely measuring and monitoring each goal and implementing improvement plans, the state will drive towards producing results in five goal areas:

  • World-Class Education
  • Prosperous Economy
  • Sustainable Energy & a Clean Environment
  • Healthy & Safe Communities
  • Efficient, Effective & Accountable Government

Higher Education

Results Washington identifies the goal of a World-class education through outcome measures that increase access to education to provide students with 21st century skills to succeed from early learning to higher education.

To achieve this goal the framework identifies two outcome measures for higher education that identify the results the Inslee Administration wants to achieve.

  • Increase the percentage of population enrolled in certificate, credential, apprenticeship, and degree programs.
  • Increase the attainment of certificates, credentials, apprenticeships, and degrees.

The progress on each of these outcome measures will be determined by a set of specific, detailed, quantifiable indicators. For higher education these include to date:

  • Increase the number of students enrolled in STEM and identified high-demand employment programs
  • Increase the percentage of students entering public higher education who access and complete high-quality online learning
  • Increase the percentage of eligible students who sign-up for the College Bound program
  • Increase the percentage of eligible students who receive the State Need Grant
  • Increase the number of families saving for postsecondary education training expenses using the GET from 152,000 in 2012 to 182,000 in 2017.
  • Increase project-based, career workplace, community learning opportunities that provide STEM and 21st century skills
  • Increase number of STEM graduates in 4-year colleges
  • Increase the number of STEM graduates in community and technical colleges
  • Increase the percentage of adult basic education and English-as-a-second language students who transition to precollege or college level within one-year from 10% to 13% by 2017.

Specific percentage increases and by what date for the majority of these indicators have yet to be determined. Data is expected to be included within the next six months as the Governor’s Office and higher education stakeholders continue discussions.

Next Steps

In the coming weeks the Inslee Administration will continue outreach efforts to collect feedback. For example, two events are scheduled in the near future.

  • On September 12 at 10:00 a.m. Governor Inslee  will host a Town Hall providing a Q&A session on Twitter.
  • Between September 17 and October 1 the Governor’s Office will host an interactive, moderated website where users can share, comment and vote on feedback and ideas submitted by other users.

The next iteration of this work, scheduled to be released in mid to late October, will reflect the feedback provided from stakeholders, state employees and the public.

New Chair of the National Governors Association Announces Yearlong Initiative Focused on Education and Training

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Earlier this month the new Chair of the National Governors Association – Governor Mary Fallin (Oklahoma) – announced the yearlong initiative that will be the focus of her leadership.

America Works: Education and Training for Tomorrow’s Jobs will focus on improving education and workforce training systems and aligning those systems with the needs of individual state economies.

Specifically the initiative will center on:

  • Engaging education, business, and government leaders in a dialogue about what governors can do to more closely align K-12, higher education and workforce training providers with future labor demands, and
  • Supporting governors and their staff in using data and information to identify states’ future labor demands and prioritize changes in state education and workforce training systems to meet those demands and take action to achieve desired results.

Obama Administration Lays Out Aggressive Postsecondary Education Agenda

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In mid-August President Obama began a short bus tour beginning in New York to talk about college affordability and his plans for addressing access and affordability across the country.

The plan would highlight policy changes in three major areas:

  • Pay for Performance by tying financial aid to college performance, starting with publishing new college ratings before the 2015 year; challenging states to fund public colleges based on performance; and holding students and institutions receiving student aid responsible for making progress toward a degree.
  • Promoting Innovation and Competition to challenge colleges to offer students a greater range of affordable, high-quality options than they do today; give consumers clear, transparent information on college performance to help them make the decisions that work best for them; and encourage innovation by stripping away unnecessary regulations.
  • Ensuring that Student Debt Remains Affordable to help ensure borrowers can afford their federal student loan debt by allowing all borrowers to cap their payments at 10 percent of their monthly income; and reach out to struggling borrowers to ensure they are aware of the flexible options available to help them to repay their debt.

The first major step in implementing this plan will be issuance of new college ratings by 2015. The U.S. Department of Education will develop a new ratings system, to be displayed on institution’s federal scorecards, to help students compare the value offered by colleges and encourage colleges to improve. The ratings will be developed through public hearings around the country to gather input and will be based on such measures as:

  • Access, such as percentage of students receiving Pell Grants;
  • Affordability, such as average tuition, scholarships, and loan debt; and
  • Outcomes, such as graduation and transfer rates, graduate earnings, and advanced degrees of college graduates.

Between 2014 and 2018 the Department will refine these measures and seek legislation using this new rating system to transform the way federal aid is awarded to institutions once the ratings are developed. The goal will be to tie federal student aid funding to institutions to the rankings by 2018.

In addition the plan identifies a number of other policy proposals to work towards greater access and affordability for students. Among these proposals is a Race to the Top for Higher Education to spur state higher education reforms and reshape the federal-state partnership by ensuring that states maintain funding for public higher education. The promotion of innovation and competition by awarding credits based on learning and not seat time, using technology to redesign courses and for student services, and recognize prior learning and promote dual enrollment. Finally efforts will include proposals to ensure student debt is affordable by making borrowers eligible for the Pay as You Earn program.

President Signs Student Loan Interst Rates

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In early August President Obama signed into law legislation to reduce interest rates on all new student loans this year and over the lifetime of a student’s loans.

The bipartisan plan allows borrowers to benefit from the low interest rates currently available in the marketplace and guarantees borrowers are able to lock-in rates over the life of their loans. Fixed rates will be determined each year by market conditions.

Funding Model Task Force To Meet Next Week

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The Technical Incentive Funding Model Task Force established by the Legislature in the 2013-15 biennial operating budget will begin its work next week in Seattle.

Focused on the four-year, public higher education sector the Task Force will focus on developing an incentive funding model to provide new incentives for Washington’s public baccalaureate sector that demonstrate improvement in existing performance measures and control resident undergraduate tuition growth.

The focus of the first of five meetings will be to set the context for this discussion. Among the key questions that will drive the conversation are:

  • What’s the role for public four-year institutions in Washington?
  • What are the changes facing these institutions?
  • What is the role of performance funding within this context?

House Republicans Name New Ranking Member to Capital Committee

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This week the Washington House Republicans announced that Rep. Richard DeBolt would join the membership of the House Capital Budget Committee as the new ranking Republican member.

DeBolt stepped aside as the House Republican leader earlier this year. DeBolt will take on the role formerly held by Rep. Judy Warnick.

Warnick was named caucus chair earlier this year.

Student Loan Interest Bill Passes House Heads to President’s Desk

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This week the U.S. House of Representatives passed student loan interest rate legislation. The bill now heads to the President who is expected to sign it into law.

The legislation will tie interest rates on federal student loans to the market and, at least in the short term, forestall hefty increases that were to hit new borrowers beginning this fall.

The legislation passed the House of Representatives by a wide margin (392-31, with 10 abstentions) after originating in the Senate, which approved it last week. The measure, when signed by President Obama, will reset interest rates on federally guaranteed loans each July based on the previous May’s auction of 10-year Treasury bills. Undergraduate loans — those that are federally subsidized as well as those that are not — would be set at the Treasury rate plus 2.05 percentage points, while loans for graduate students would be set at 3.6 points above the Treasury rate, and loans for parents at 4.6 percentage points over the T-bill rate. The maximum rate would be capped at 8.25 percent for undergraduate loans, 9.5 percent for graduate student loans, and 10.5 percent for parent loans.

 

U.S. Senate Passes Student Loan Legislation

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Yesterday the  U.S. Senate approved legislation to link interest rates on student loans to the market, which would cut rates in the short term but potentially allow them to rise significantly within a few years.

The vote was 81 to 18.  All but one of the Senate’s “no” votes were from Democrats, Republican Mike Lee of Utah was the one “no” from his party. Many of the Democrats voted for an alternative pushed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed and another proposal that would have sunsetted the proposal before rates were likely to spike.

But with supportive statements issued within minutes of the Senate vote by leading House Republicans  and Rep. George Miller, the senior Democrat on the House education panel, the measure seems sure to pass the House. The White House signaled President Obama’s support early Wednesday, virtually ensuring that it will become law.

Under the legislation, student loan rates would reset each July based on the previous May’s auction of 10-year Treasury bills. Undergraduate loans — those that are federally subsidized as well as those that are not — would be set at the Treasury rate plus 2.05 percentage points, while loans for graduate students would be set at 3.6 points above the Treasury rate, and loans for parents at 4.6 percentage points over the T-bill rate. The maximum rate would be capped at 8.25 percent for undergraduate loans, 9.5 percent for graduate student loans, and 10.5 percent for parent loans.

Because the Treasury rate is low now, the rate on undergraduate loans in the 2014 fiscal year would be 3.86 percent (5.41 percent for graduate students, and 6.41 percent for parents) — well below the 6.8 percent rate that took effect July 1.