Tag Archives: Economic Forecast

State Revenue Declines: Another $1.2 Billion Gap

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Washington’s state budget took a large hit this morning. The November Economic & Revenue Forecast, released today, shows an additional $1.2 billion decline in revenue between now and 2013.

The Forecast will require Washington to further reduce the budget for the current fiscal year by $385 million. This is in addition to the $520 million across-the-board cuts the Governor ordered earlier this fall.

State Chief Economist Arun Raha stated that the additional decline in state revenues for the current biennium is due to the repeal of the soda, candy, and bottle water tax in November and weaker future revenue growth than was assumed in September.

According to Raha, credit to small business remains tight, recovery in the commercial construction sector is not expected until 2012, and single-family housing remains weak. In addition though some signs show positive movement with regard to multifamily housing and auto sales, neither can be assumed to be sustainable or substantial.

In addition, the budget shortfall for 2011-13 increased by $800 million, increasing the total budget gap for the upcoming biennium to $5.7 billion. The increase in the 2011-13 biennium is also related to the reduction in revenue as a result of the repeal of the candy, bottled water, and soda tax combined with a weaker outlook for revenue growth.

The forecast caught many by surprise, including the Governor and policymakers since revenues had been closely tracking to the September forecast.

The Governor has stated that further across-the-board cuts are not feasible.

“I have been working with legislative leadership in both parties to collect ideas on how to address our current shortfall. This forecast has added even more urgency to those discussions, and I’ve asked them to provide their options to me by November 29. Quite frankly we can’t cut any deeper without ending significant programs. Extremely difficult choices must be made, and given this sharp revenue decline, they must be made now,” Gregoire said.

The only positive note in all of this. According to Raha, Washington’s strong aerospace and software industries combined with important exports to Pacific Rim nations may mean that Washington could perform better than other U.S. states in the economic recovery.

Preliminary Economic Forecast Suggests More of the Same

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This morning the Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued a preliminary November economic forecast.

The forecast shows no change in the near term from the September forecast. The preliminary report, however, does show a slight weakening for 2012 and 2013, reflecting a weaker national economic tide.

Arun Raha, Washington’s State Economist, pointed again to public sector job cuts. He noted that the 1,000 jobs created in the private sector in September were swallowed up by the 3,500 jobs that were eliminated in the public sector.

The Council is scheduled to adopt a new quarterly economic forecast on Nov. 5. That will help drive the forecast of state tax collections the Council will adopt on Nov. 18. Assumptions provided in that forecast will be used by the governor as a basis for the operating budget proposal she’ll announce in December.

The Legislature will then convene in January to begin work on one last re-write of the budget for the current two-year budget cycle and then draw up a budget for the next cycle that begins July 1.

Governor Issues Across-the-Board Cuts

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Yesterday, Governor Gregoire issued an executive order directing across-the-board cuts to state programs and agencies.

The level of the reductions, as stated in the executive order, are to be based on the September Economic and Revenue forecast.  As a result, the level of reductions to state agencies will not be revealed unitl after the release of the September Economic and Revenue forecast on Thursday.  The reductions will go into effect on October 1, 2010.

Over the last month, Governor Gregoire informed state agencies to prepare for across-the-board cuts that could range from 4 to 7 percent. However, given the continual decline in state revenues since June,  the Governor warned that the cuts could be even higher.

In addition, the Governor has stated that quick action by the 2011 Washington Legislature will be needed to pass a supplemental budget that reduces state support for public services by $500 million from the last six months of the current fiscal year. 

It is also expected that the 2011-13 budget will need to be reduced by 10 percent to bridge an estimated state shortfall of $3 billion.

State Revenue Declines

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State revenues fell again for the second month in a row.

The latest revenue collections released earlier this week showed revenue collections were $124.5 million less than was predicted in June.

Additional details regarding revenue will emerge over the next month. In September the Economic and Revenue F’orecast Council is expected to release an economic report (Sept. 3), a follow-up on tax collections (Sept. 10), and the quarterly revenue forecast (Sept. 16).

Revenue Collections for Washington Down 1.1% for the Quarter

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On Friday,  the State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council released it economic review for the quarter.

The official revenue forecast is scheduled for June 17, but the economic review hints at what can be expected in the coming weeks:

Arun Raha, Washington’s chief economic forecaster, reported that estimated revenue collections through the June 10 collection period are down by 1.1% or $48 million below what was expected over this period of time.

Overall, Raha stated the events that have unfolded since the last forecast (February 2010) have done so along predictable lines.

According to Raha, “the current U.S. forecast is, therefore, similar to the forecast adopted in February. Major state economic variables are also coming in very close to what we had expected. As a result, the revisions to the Washington state economic forecast are minimal.”

Revenue Forecast Released – State Deficit Ticks Up to $2.8 billion

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Today the Washington Economic & Revenue Forecast Council released the February economic and revenue forecast.

The forecast for state funds for the 2009-11 biennium is $118.2 milion less than expected in the last forecast in November.  The reduction in state revenue is down because of a $149.7 milllion reduction associated with the DOT Foods Supreme Court decision. The increase in caseloads, the DOT Court decision, and other factors resulted in the net loss of $118 million.

If only economic factors were considered the forecast would be up by $31.5 million.

The forecast shows that economic events and revenue collections continue to unfold as was anticipated in November. However, Washington’s economy is still in the early stages of recovery so risks reported in the preview released February 5 remain serious.

Details

  • Continued tight credit for small businesses poses a significant challenge for recovery and will slow down the recovery in jobs.
  • Though consumer confidence is improving, this is tentative. Confidence is expected to continue to improve as the job situation improves.
  • House marketing indicators are signaling a potential turnaround. Single family housing starts, sales and prices have begun to firm-up, despite the overhang of excess housing which has yet to be absorbed.
  • The state’s economy continues to lose jobs but the rate has slowed to a trickle in recent months and growth in some sectors has already turned positive.
  • Construction employment continues to decline. It is estimated there is a one-year lag between turning points in permits and turning points in housing related construction employment.
  • Washington’s manufacturing sector is poised for a rebound
  • Washington’s personal income is now growing moderately.

Though things seem to be improving it is important to note that downside risks remain significant.

Caseload Forecast Up; Results in Increase in State Budget Deficit

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Today the Washington State Caseload Forecast Council released the latest report on public program and service caseloads.  It is not surprising the demand on public services (i.e. health and human services, public education, and corrections) continues to rise.

According to the Council, the rise in caseloads has resulted in an additional $96 million reduction to the state budget. The change pushes the state’s budget deficit to about $2.7 billion.

Though the state budget hole seems to have increased today the true size of the budget deficit will not be known until this Friday (February 12). On Friday, the Washington Economic Forecast Council will release the February economic and revenue forecast for Washington.

A preview of what might be expected was provided earlier this month. According to the preview of the forecast state revenues have increased slighlty by $45-50 million.

If the preview proves to be on the money, then the hit to the state budget ($96 million) would be reduced by nearly half .

$96 million decline – $45-50 million in revenue= $51-46 million additional budget reduction

So stay tuned…

February State Economic Review: Recovery in Economic Activity Continues

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On Friday, the Washington Economic & Revenue Forecast Council released a preview of the upcoming revenue forecast.

Overall, things may be looking up.

The report states that recovery in economic activity continues in the fourth quarter of 2009, but recovery in jobs continues to lag.

Though concerns remain regarding credit to small business, the recovery of the construction sector, and the tentative nature of consumer confidence, there are reasons for positive thinking. Washington’s economy will outperform the nation, benefitting from higher overall exports and relative stability in aerospace and softwar publishing. In addition, cumulative revenue collections are on track to come in at $45-50 million above the November forecast.

Details

  • Continued tight credit for small businesses poses a significant challenge for recovery and will slow down the recovery in jobs.
  • Though consumer confidence is improving, this is tentative. Holiday shopping figures showed some evidence of a modest release of pent-up demand, but were mostly positive in growth because of the very poor results a year ago.
  • House marketing indicators are signaling a potential turnaround. Single family housing starts, sales and prices have begun to firm-up, despite the overhang of excess housing which has yet to be absorbed.
  • The state’s economy continues to lose jobs but the rate has slowed to a trickle in recent months and growth in some sectors has already turned positive. In addition, initial state unemployment claims seem to be indicating an imminent turnaround in the state’s labor market.
  • New housing construction in the state continues to improve according to housing permit data.
  • Construction employment continues to decline. It is estimated there is a one-year lag between turning points in permits and turning points in housing related construction employment.
  • Washington’s manufacturing sector is poised for a rebound
  • Washington’s personal income is now growing moderately.

Though things seem to be improving it is important to note that downside risks remain significant and at the same level as in November. There is a risk of a double-dip  or “W-shaped” recovery where economic activity lags in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is likely to happen if by the middle of next year consumer spending and confidence fails to recover as is expected.

The official February revenue forecast is scheduled for February 12.

November 19 Revenue Forecast Places Washington’s Shortfall at $2.6 Billion

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The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council convened the morning of November 19th for a sobering task: outlining the depth of our state’s budget crisis. State Economist Dr. Arun Raha characterized the situation as a “revenue-less recovery,” pointing out that, while the recession ended during the second quarter of this fiscal year, consumer confidence & spending are still too weak to adequately bolster our economy. Since sales and Business & Occupation taxes constitute the bulk of our revenue, the economic downturn has left Washington vulnerable.

Forecast estimates include an additional $760 million in revenue loss for the 2009/2011 biennium since Septemember’s forecast, a combination, according to Dr. Raha, of $97 million lost during the last two months alone, and a $663 million loss in projected taxable activity for the remainder of the biennium.

This information comes with only a handful of working weeks left before the state legislature convenes for a supplemental session. What this shortfall – and subsequent forecasts – spell for Evergreen’s budget is uncertain now, and will remain so until early 2010, after the Governor has proposed her supplemental budget. From there, state legislators will work in their respective houses to reach agreement about how the budget will look before the legislative session comes to a close in March.