Recounts Go to Republican Candidates

This week the Washington Secretary of State completed recounts in three state legislative races.

Republican Challenger Steve Litzow (District 41) prevailed by 192 votes in the machine recount of his race against Democratic State Sen. Randy Gordon.

In the 25th Legislative District Republican Hans Zeiger (District 42) defeated Rep. Dawn Morrell, the House Democratic Caucus Chairwoman, by 30 votes.

Finally, Republican Vincent Buys defeated Democrat Representative Kelli Linville.

None of the outcomes change the majorities in either the House or Senate.

Three Legislative Races Will Require Recount

It appears that the full membership of the 2011-13 Washington Legislature will not be known until early December.

Three legislative races appear to be headed for a recount.

  • Legislative District 25 – Rep. Morrell trailed Republican challenger Hans Zeiger by 47 votes as of yesterday.
  • Legislative District 41 – Sen. Gordon trailed Republican challenger Steve Litzow by 194 votes.
  • Legislative District 42 – Rep. Linville trailed challenger Vincent Buys by 154 votes.

The race for the legislative seat in District 25 will require a hand recount, while the other two races will require a machine recount.

Election Results- The Latest

For many Election Day seems a thing of the past. However for the Washington Legislature election day is still playing out.

With each passing day the number of ballots left to count is shrinking and it appears that the Democrats will retain their majorities with the re-election of several incumbents in the House and Senate.

Races, that even a week ago seemed to close to call, are emerging with clear leaders. For example, Senators Eide, Tom, and Hobbs continue to lead their Republican challengers with sufficient margins. In addition, Rep. Goodman is likely to retain his seat and Democrat Luis Moscoso’s lead continues to widen over Republican candidate Heidi Munson in the open seat in Snohomish County.

Unless ballots shift drastically, it appears that only two races will require a recount in Washington.

  • Rep. Dawn Morrell leads Republican challenger Hans Zeiger by less than 70 votes setting the stage for a machine recount
  • Republican callenger Vincent Buys leads Rep. Kelli Linville by 300 votes also potentially requiring a recount

If trends continue as they have over the last couple of weeks, it appears that the Senate Democrats will retain the majority in the Senate, 27-22 and the House Democrats will retain their majority with 57-41 seats.

Congressional 2nd District Looks Like Win for Democrats; Update on State Races

Today reports declare U.S. Representative Rick Larsen the winner in the race for the 2nd Congressional District in Washington.

Though John Koster, the Snohomish County Councilman running against Larsen, has not conceded election totals show that Larsen leads Koster 51% to 49%  with more than 281,000 votes counted as of Monday night.  This lead is outside the range for a mandatory recount.

State
At the time of this blog, the Democrats it appears that the Democrats will retain control of both the Washington House and Senate.

Regardless of the outcome, the majorities in both chamber will be much smaller than in the prior biennium.  Republicans  won several seats this election, closing the prior 13 member gap held by the Senate Democrats to five (27 Democrat; 22 Republican) at the time of this blog.

In the House, the Democrats held a 61-37 advantage. All 98 seats were on the November ballot, with 16 open seats. The latest poll numbers show the Democrat advantage has been reduced, closing the gap from 24 to 16 votes (57 Democrats; 41 Republicans) at the time of this blog.

What is Next
On November 15, the next revenue forecast is scheduled. The preliminary forecast showed little change from September, but an increase in caseloads is expected.

Between now and the end of December any unknowns regarding the election will be cleared. In addition, information regarding legislative leadership and committee chairs should emerge.

Finally, towards the end of December Governor Gregoire will release her budget. Followed by the beginning of the 2011 legislative regular session on January 10.

Election Update: Murray Wins, Democrats Appear to Hold Washington Legislature

Leadership and structure at the federal and state levels continues to take shape as the week ends.

Federal
On Thursday evening Dino Rossi conceded the U.S. Senate seat  to Patty Murray. As of Thursday night, Murray led Rossi by more than 46,000 votes statewide, taking 51% to Rossi’s 49%.

Results for the 2nd Congressional District seat remain undetermined. As ofyesterday, Democrat Rep. Rick Larsen maintained a narrow lead over Snohomish County Councilman John Koster in the latest vote tallies.

Larsen trailed on Election Day by about 1,200 votes. On Thursday, he had pulled ahead by 1,451 votes, or 0.66 percent. A recount is required if the candidates are less than one-half a percentage point and fewer than 2,000 votes apart.

State
At the time of this blog, the Democrats appear to be retaining control of both the Washington House and Senate. Though no final determinations have been made for a handful of Senate and House seats.

It is also unclear whether or not a recount will be triggered. In Washington a machine recount is automatic when the difference is less than 2,000 votes and 0.5% of total votes cast for both candidates.

A manual recount is triggered when the difference is less than 1,000 votes and 0.25% of total votes cast for both candidates for statewide offices; and 150 votes and 0.25% of total votes cast for both candidates for regional and local offices.

Regardless of the outcome, the majorities in both chamber will be much smaller than in the prior biennium.

Final Election News Will Be Slow; Political Context Taking Shape

Two-days after the 2010 mid-term election ballots are still being counted. It is expected that it will take weeks before a handful of state legislative races or control of the Legislature is decided.

Here is a quick summary of how races are shaping up across the state, based on election results posted on the Secretary of State’s website today

Federal
U.S. Senator Patty Murray(51%) is leading former state senator Dino Rossi (49%).  Most election observers believe it will take some time and a possible recount to determine this race.

In the open 3rd Congressional District, State Rep. Jaime Herrera (53%) leads former state legislator Denny Heck (47%). The 3rd Congressional District represents The Evergreen State College.

In the 2nd Congressional District, U.S. Representative Rick Larsen is in a close race with Snohomish County Council Member John Koster. Larsen leads by just over 500 votes.

Of the remaining congressional races, seven of the nine incumbents are clearly returning to Washington D.C. They include: U.S. Representatives Norm Dicks, Richard “Doc” Hastings, Jay Inslee, Jim McDermott, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, Dave Reichert, and Adam Smith.

Washington Legislature
This January 25 new legislators will arrive in Olympia. At least 21 new House members and 4 new Senate members will join the Washington Legislature.

A smaller gap between the number of majority and minority members in both chambers is likely to mean changes, such as in committee structure.  Republicans  won several seats this election, closing the prior 13 member gap held by the Senate Democrats to five (27 Democrat; 22 Republican) at the time of this blog.

In the House, the Democrats held a 61-37 advantage. All 98 seats were on the November ballot, with 16 open seats. Since Tuesday, the Democrat advantage has been reduced to half, closing the gap to 12 votes (55 Democrats; 43 Republicans) at the time of this blog.

In addition, the loss of current House Ways & Means Committee Chair Kelli Linville as well as races too close to call for House Capital Budget Chair Hans Dunshee and House Education Appropriations Chair Kathy Haigh means possible change with regard to budget committees.

House Democratic leadership also faces changes with the retirement of Majority Leader Lynn Kessler and a race too close to call for current Democratic Caucus Chair Dawn Morrell. Finally, the chair of the House Higher Education Committee did not run nor did the chair and ranking member of the House Education Committee, leaving holes in both of these policy committees.

Budget
The 2011 legislative session is expected to be another difficult fiscal session for all of Washington.  The state faces an immediate budget gap of least $500 million (gap in the 2009-11 biennium) and an estimated $4.5 billion for the 2011-13 biennium. Tough choices are expected with the 2010 tax increases gone and a return to the two-thirds requirment with the passage of I-1053.

What is Next
On November 15, the next revenue forecast is scheduled. The preliminary forecast showed little change from September, but an increase in caseloads is expected.

Between now and the end of December any unknowns regarding the election will be cleared. In addition, information regarding legislative leadership and committee chairs should emerge.

Finally, towards the end of December Governor Gregoire will release her budget. Followed by the beginning of the 2011 legislative regular session on January 10.

Elections Create Some Change

Election results in Washington continue to change one-day after the 2010 mid-term election. 

Several races, at the state and federal levels, remain too close to call, including the U.S. Senate race between Murray and Rossi and several state senate and house races.

Reports state that nearly a third of all votes have yet to be counted in Washington. These votes are expected to be counted as they trickle in via snail mail.

What we do know is that the number of Republicans and Democrats in the Washington Legislature is expected to be much closer than in the prior legislative session. In addition, the majority of initiatives on the ballot are failing with two exceptions. Both I-1053 and I-1107 are passing.

Specific to Evergreen we will likely welcome a new U.S. Representative for the 3rd District, Jaime Herrera as well as  a new state representative, Chris Reykdal. In addition, we will continue to be represented by Rep. Sam Hunt and Sen. Karen Fraser.

Stay tuned for updates!

Signatures for State Initiatives Due Today

Today is the deadline for initiative campaigns to submit signatures to the Washington Secretary of State for the November ballot.  Washington requires 241,000 valid signatures for an initiative to be placed on a ballot.

Over sixty proposed initiatives were filed with the Secretary of State.  As of today, six initiatives appear to have met the signature requirement and will be on the November 2010 ballot.

  • I-1100: Privatizes liquor sales
  • I-1082: Privatizes workers’ compensation option
  • I-1105: Privatizes liquor but includes some state controls around pricing and licensing
  • I-1053: (Re)Institutes a two-thirds majority rule on the Legislature for raising taxes
  • I-1098: High earners income tax
  • I-1107: Repeals the recently passed tax on soda.

Preview of Candidates for Fall Election in Washington

This fall all of the seats in the Washington House of Representatives will be up for election along with twenty-four seats in the Washington Senate.

House
Though all seats will be up for election in the Washington House, several current serving representatives have announced their decision to either retire or run for a different office.

Both representatives for District 1 (parts of Snohomish and King Counties) have announced they will not seek re-election. Rep. O’Brien is retiring and Rep. Ericks (Vice Chair for Ways & Means) is setting his sights on a position with U.S. Marshall’s Office.

Several other representatives are also seeking positions elsewhere in public service.

  • Rep. Herrera (R-18 Kalama, Evergreen State College) – Third Congressional District
  • Rep. Williams (D-22 Thurston County, Evergreen State College) – WA Supreme Court
  • Rep. Priest (R-30 Federal Way) – Federal Way Mayor
  • Rep. Roach (R-31 Bonney Lake) – Pierce County Council
  • Rep. Nelson (D-34 West Seattle) – Vacated Senate Seat currently held by Sen. McDermott
  • Rep. Ericksen (R- 42 Ferndale) – Vacated Senate Seat currently held by Sen. Brandland

Finally, several more representatives have chosen to end, which for many is a multi-decade career in the Washington Legislature, to pursue other interests.  These include Representatives:

  • Rep. Wood (D-3 Spokane),
  • Rep. Wallace (D-12 Vancouver, Chair of House Higher Education),
  • Rep. Kessler (D-24 Parts of Clallam, Jefferson and Grays Harbort Counties, Majority Leader),
  • Rep. Flannigan (D-27 Tacoma/Fife), and
  • Rep. Quall (D-40 Parts of San Juan, Skagit, and Whatcom Counties, Chair of House Education).

Senate
This fall  twenty-four seats will be open for election in the Washington Senate.  The seats in which the term will expire in January 2011 are currently held by the following elected officials:

  • Sen. Marr (D-6 Spokane)
  • Sen. Morton (R-7 Kettle Falls)
  • Sen. Delvin (D-8 Richland)
  • Sen. Holmquist (R-13 Moses Lake)
  • Sen. Honeyford (R-15 Sunnyside)
  • Sen. Shin (D-21 Edmonds, Senate Higher Education & Workforce Dev. Cmte)
  • Sen. Kilmer (D-26 Gig Harbor, Chair – Senate Higher Education & Workforce Dev. Cmte)
  • Sen. Franklin (D-29 South Tacoma)
  • Sen. Eide (D-30 Federal Way)
  • Sen. Roach (R-31 Auburn)
  • Sen. Fairley (D-32 Parts of King and Snohomish Counties)
  • Sen. Keiser (D-33 Kent)
  • Sen. McDermott (D-34 West Seattle)
  • Sen. Sheldon (D-35 Potlatch)
  • Sen. Kohl-Welles (D-36 Seattle)
  • Sen. Kline (D-37 Seattle)
  • Sen. Berkey (D-38 Everett)
  • Sen. Brandland (R-42 Bellingham)
  • Sen. Murray (D-43 Seattle)
  • Sen. Hobbs (D-44 Lake Stevens)
  • Sen. Oemig (D-45 Kirkland)
  • Sen. Jacobsen (D-46 Seattle, Senate Higher Education & Workforce Development Cmte)
  • Sen. Kauffman (D-47 Kent)
  • Sen. Tom (D-48 Bellevue, Vice Chair of Senate Ways & Means)

Four of the Senate seats will be open races with no incumbent. Senators Fairley, Franklin, and Brandland have announced their retirment, while Sen. McDermott is seeking a seat on the King County Council in November.