Please bring a friend and join us for the next Olympia Science Café.
When: 7:00 pm, Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Where: Batdorf & Bronson Coffee House, 516 Capitol Way South, Olympia, Washington. Phone 360.786.6717
Batdorf & Bronson has three locations in Olympia. Science Café meets at the downtown coffee house.
On-street parking is available on Legion, Capitol Way, Columbia Street, and Water Street.
After 6 p.m., parking is available at Heritage Bank on Columbia Street between 5th and Legion.
Our topic for November is Uncertainties in Climate Projections: Do we know enough now to move ahead with control of greenhouse gas emissions?
Dr. Robert Charlson traces the early history of greenhouse gas and aerosol/climate research, in particular the first estimates of aerosol forcing made in the early 1990’s, which were largely based on observations of atmospheric aerosol properties. Subsequent efforts have been dominated by models of increasing complexity, while attempts at improving the global observational basis via instrumented satellites are underway. Estimates of global average of forcing by anthropogenic aerosols range from ca. -0.5 to -1.5 W/m2, which is a significant fraction but opposite in sign to the forcing by greenhouse gases ca. + 2.5 W/m2. The total forcing will become less uncertain as the greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, such that the need for control of those gases will become increasingly urgent, even if the present uncertainty in aerosol forcing is not reduced. Meanwhile, reducing the uncertainty of the aerosol forcing is necessary if we are to be able to understand the causes of the observed warming over the 20th century and to refine the projections of climate change in the future.
Dr. Charlson is Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Professor of Chemistry at the University of Washington, Seattle.
December Topic:
Generation of Electricity: Potential and Problems
by Puget Sound Energy