The newly formed Washington Student Achievement Council (WSAC) issued its first major action yesterday, November 29th. In its “Call for Action” the WSAC urges improvements in five areas that represent critical obstacles to student achievement, but also provide opportunities for implementing fundamental change.

Entitled “Critical Crossroads: A Call for Action,” the plan was endorsed Wednesday, November 28th by the Council and will now be sent to the Legislature and Governor.  The council hopes the plan will “serve as a foundation for public discussion leading to a 10-year education “roadmap” to be developed in 2013. The roadmap will contain specific recommendations to enhance educational attainment.”

Council Chairman, Brian Baird, said the action plan is a starting point for a more comprehensive assessment of the state’s educational needs and resources.

The five critical areas cited by the WSAC as critical obstacles to student achievement, but which also provide opportunities for implementing fundamental change, are:

• Readiness:   What barriers to successful learning exist within the education system, and what more can be done to address those barriers.
• Affordability:  How can the price of education be reduced for students and families. Possibilities include providing college credit for work completed in high school, online, or through work experience.
• Institutional Capacity and Student Success: What measurable targets and milestones can be established to meet demand for postsecondary education, including greater participation by returning adults.
• Capturing the Potential of Technology:  What efforts already are under way to integrate online learning, and what would be feasible and required to fully integrate online learning into institutions’ instructional programs.
• Stable and Accountable Funding: In conjunction with institutions, state executive and legislative entities, develop a public higher education plan of financing that includes sustainable funding sources and defensible funding benchmarks that the Governor and Legislature can use in making resource allocation decisions. 

Senate Republicans chose Mark Shoesler as their new minority leader yesterday, November 28th. Replacing Senator Mike Hewitt who stepped down earlier this fall but will retain his seat in the Senate, Shoesler most previously served on the Senate Ways & Means and Rules committees. Shoesler is a 20 year veteran of the Senate and hails from rural Ritzville in Eastern Washington.

As a member of Ways & Means Shoesler has helped write the state budget, and according to the Tacoma News Tribune, “has been a loud opponent of anything he sees as government waste.”  His appointment is important in that Senate leadership is currently at a potential tipping point. One lone race between incumbent Republican, Don Benton, and current Democratic House member, Tim Probst, has yet to be officially decided. Benton currently leads by 86 votes and if he is successful in retaining his seat will push the number of Republican seats in the Senate to 24. If that happens the Democrats will continue to retain a majority with 26 seats, but two Democrats who have been known to cross the isle and vote with Republicans could enable the Republicans to gain a majority. If that happens it could lead to an interesting split in the Senate with any number of scenarios playing out. A recount for the Benton/Probst race is set to begin Monday, December 5th.

An updated quarter revenue forecast was released yesterday, November 15th and things remain relatively unchanged since September. The Forecast Council’s revenue projection for the current biennium (2011–13) increased, but by only $8 million. As reported in a news release by the Office of Financial Management, Forecast Council Executive Director Steve Lerch stated, “Revenue collections are on track, but personal income is falling off slightly compared to our previous forecast,”  …  “Our overall forecast is down a very small amount as a result.”

However, things are not as bright looking into next biennium and beyond. Washington faces a projected $900 million state budget shortfall for the 2013–15 biennium and an even larger shortfall of nearly $1.1 billion for the following biennium (2015–17).

The $900 million deficit, however, is slightly better than projected in September and that has Governor Gregoire upbeat. According to the news release, Gregoire stated she was “encouraged by many of the economic indicators underlying today’s forecast, especially in the housing and export sectors.” “Housing is more affordable than it has been in a long time and aerospace remains strong,” Gregoire said. “While we are seeing clear signs of recovery, economic growth remains slow, and we have to ensure that every Washingtonian who wants a job has one.” She also stressed the forecast does not take into account the any additional spending that will be needed to meet basic education needs identified by the state Supreme Court in the McCleary decision.

“We have a shortfall even before we begin trying to address McCleary,” Gregoire said. “I’ve instructed state agencies and my fiscal staff to scrub the budget for every possible savings. But, as I’ve been saying for months, it will not be possible to solve this problem entirely with spending cuts.”

Gregoire is in the midst of preparing her final budget as Governor before Governor-elect Jay Inslee takes the reins in January. Governor Gregoire’s budget recommendations will likely be one of many before the end of the 2013 legislative session.  Inslee will have an opportunity to release his own budget, as well as Democrat and Republican Senators and Representatives.

Additionally according to OFM, today’s revenue forecast increases projected General Fund revenue for the current biennium to $30.9 billion. The Forecast Council’s forecast for the 2013–15 biennium now projects revenue collections will be about $33 billion.

While the Forecast Council’s four-year outlook shows revenue growing to about $36 billion in the 2015–17 biennium, it also projects a nearly $1.1 billion shortfall for that two-year budget.

Senator Ed Murray, Democrat, was elected Senate Majority Leader yesterday, November 13.  Murray was elected by his fellow democrats in the Senate where they hold a narrow majority. Murray serves in the 43rd legislative district and has been in the Senate since 1995. Most recently he served as Ways & Means Chair; a seat now open.

Senator Lisa Brown, Spokane, held the position for a number of years but did not seek reelection this season. Murray was presumed next in line for the post; however, the announcement came as a bit of a surprise. Yesterday I blogged about a contentious race playing out in the 17th district where incumbent, Republican Don Benton, holds a narrow lead over Democrat Tim Probst. If Benton retains his seat the Democrats’ lead in the house is narrowed. This narrowed lead may offer an opportunity for across-aisle alliances. and could mean the difference between a Democrat or Republican “lead” Senate, or some type of “split” governance  structure.   See the full story here.  Murray, however, dismissed this idea saying to the Seattle Times he’s open to some committees being chaired by Republicans but, “My belief is that somebody needs to be in control, otherwise we’ll have chaos on the floor.”

As finalized numbers come in from the 17th district we will gain a better idea of what to expect.

It is one week and a day after the 2012 elections and all but a select few races have been determined. What is left, however, may mean the difference in Senate leadership.

In the 17th legislative district, long-time Republican Senator Don Benton leads Democratic Representative Tim Probst in the closest Senate race statewide. As of Tuesday evening  Benton lead Probst by 65 votes … a difference that has seesawed each time new results are announced. Earlier Tuesday Probst lead the race by 16 votes. The winner of this race may determine who controls the Senate.

Regardless of the outcome the Democrats will maintain a majority in the Senate. However, during the 2012 legislative session, Democrats Tim Sheldon and Rodney Tom, along with one other, departing Puyallup Sen. Jim Kastama, joined Republicans to form a “philosophical majority” and advanced their own budget plan. According to the Olympian, “now their continued role as king-makers hinges on the re-election of Vancouver Republican Sen. Don Benton … and Rep. Tim Probst in a race almost certainly headed for a recount.”  “A win by Benton would trim Democrats’ majority by one to 26-23 and give Tom and Sheldon a choice to make: Do they follow last year’s template of giving Republicans de facto control over the budget while keeping Democrats in charge of the Senate and its committees? Or do they go even further and give Republicans the leadership and chairmanships?”

Other races were not nearly as close and most have been called. Below are some notable outcomes.

• Governor’s Race: Democrat Jay Inslee beat Republican Rob McKenna
• District One Senate: Incumbent Democrat Rosemary McAuliffe retains her seat with 55% of the vote
• District Two Senate: Incumbent Republican Randi Becker retains her seat with 56.6% of the vote
• District Five Senate: Newcomer Mark Mullet, Democrat, beat Republican challenger Brad Toft. This seat was vacated earlier this spring by Republican Cheryl Pflug
• District 10 Senate: Incumbent Democrat Mary Margaret Haugen lost her longtime seat to current Republican Representative Barbara Bailey
• House Higher Education Chair, Democrat Larry Seaquist, beat challenger Doug Richards
• Local House Democrat and Chair of the Education Appropriations Committee, Kathy Haigh, beat Republican challenger Dan Griffey
• Current State Senator Derek Kilmer beat Republican Challenger Bill Driscoll in the US Congressional District 6 race (this seat is being vacated by longtime Congressman Norm Dicks)
• Local US Congressional District 10  was won by Democrat Denny Heck after he beat Republican Richard (Dick) Muri

The Government Relations office at Evergreen, like so many around the state, nation and world, has been closely following the 2012 elections. Many races remain too close to call and others had clear outcomes last night and this morning. Below is a list of some of the races the Government Relations office has been following.

According to the Washington Secretary of State’s website, as of noon on November 7, 2012:

• Governor’s Race: Democrat Jay Inslee leads Republican Rob McKenna by a narrow margin – 51.32% to 48.68
• District One Senate: Incumbent Democrat Rosemary McAuliffe retains her seat with 55% of the vote
• District Two Senate: Incumbent Republican Randi Becker retains her seat with 56.6% of the vote
• District Five Senate: Newcomer Mark Mullet, Democrat, leads Republican challenger Brad Toft with 53.8% of the vote. This seat was vacated earlier this spring by Republican Cheryl Pflug
• District 10 Senate: Incumbent Democrat Mary Margaret Haugen looks to be losing her seat to current Republican Representative Barbara Bailey; Bailey has 52.8% of the vote
• District 17 Senate: Current House Democrat Tim Probst is narrowly beating (50.28%) incumbent Senator Don Benton
• House Higher Education Chair, Democrat Larry Seaquist, leads Republican challenger Doug Richards with 53.33% of the vote
• Local House Democrat and Chair of the Education Appropriations Committee, Kathy Haigh, narrowly leads Republican challenger Dan Griffey with 51.49%
• Current State Senator Derek Kilmer leads Republican Challenger Bill Driscoll in the US Congressional District 6 race with 58.27% of the vote (this seat is being vacated by longtime Congressman Norm Dicks)
• Local US Congressional District 10 race has Democrat Denny Heck leading Richard (Dick) Muri with 58.49% of the vote
• Engrossed Senate Joint Resolution No. 8221 Concerning implementing the Commission on State Debt recommendations regarding Washington’s debt limit leads by a healthy margin – 63.11%

What this all means

New numbers are scheduled to be released sometime late Wednesday afternoon or early evening. With many races still unknown it is difficult to predict how everything will shake out. It appears numbers in the Senate and House of Representatives will stay virtually unchanged, but a new Governor (regardless of the party) will almost certainly mean some changes in state government. Those changes, however, are unknown at this point.

We will update you as soon as we know more.